毋庸置疑，冯-米塞斯所说的 “最佳经济政策 ”以及一般经济政策应建立在经济学成就的基础之上。遗憾的是，现实中的经济政策往往与经济学的成就相去甚远。不幸的是，经济学被民粹主义所取代的情况并不罕见（例如，Deaton 2023；Haldar 2024；Levy, Peart 2016；Schäfer, Zürn 2024）。换句话说，经济学并不一定是经济政策的基础。

政府对经济的这种态度以及随后的政策不能被称为健全的经济政策，因为它违背了经济学甚至常识；将其命名为 “非经济经济政策 ”或更简短地说 “非经济政策 ”更为恰当（Papava 2019）。

非经济政策有三种类型。第一类非经济政策是指制定经济政策的人不考虑经济学提供的知识。

在第二类非经济政策中，政策制定者通常运用经济学知识，但这种知识是错误的。

就第三类非经济政策而言，经济学家尚未对某些重要的经济现象进行探索；因此，经济政策制定者无论做出何种承诺，都不能使用尚未获得的知识。

第一类非经济政策可能有以下原因：

1. 经济政策制定者（尤其是发展中国家的制定者）不是专业经济学家，或者资质很差。因此，他们缺乏经济学基础知识及其成就。

2. 经济政策制定者可能是合格的经济学家，但他们并不适合将经济学的成就融入他们所制定的经济政策中。

政治家们常常把他们的国家当作公司来对待，他们认为经理人——而不是专业经济学家——应该担任经济政策制定者的高级职务（Papava 2018b）。令人遗憾的是，大多数政治家并没有认识到国家与公司之间存在着本质区别这一简单事实（克鲁格曼，1996 年）。实际上，管理者的位置在企业而非政治。

当经济政策的决策者没有接受过经济学教育时，为这些高级公职人员准备决策草案的人员的专业水平通常会平衡这一点。即使在这种情况下，高级公共管理者也有可能无视上述项目草案，而只遵守政治上的权宜之计。

即使经济政策的决策者受过专门的经济学教育，他们也会经常出现依赖政治权宜之计多于经济学知识的情况。众所周知的 “公共选择理论”（Buchanan, Tullock 1962 年）可以解释这种现象，即在制定经济政策时，政治上的权宜之计比经济学上的应用更为重要。

第二类非经济政策是由经济学家的失误造成的。一个典型的例子就是 2008-2009 年的全球金融和经济危机。不幸的是，经济学家提出的经济调控方法被证明是错误的（Cliffe 2019; Stiglitz 2010）。

经济学与经济政策（或更准确地说，公共政策）之间的关系可以比作生物学与医学或物理学与工程学。据此，我们可以推断，医学中的某些错误并非生物学的过错。同样，将工程学的错误归咎于物理学也是毫无道理的（Hausmann 2019）。这种解释显然是不正确的；如果在生物学中发现了错误的根源，那么它也会随之影响医学。

遗憾的是，经济学和经济政策方面的类似情况并不少见。例如，现代货币理论（MMT）正引起人们的广泛关注，一本基于该理论的相关教科书已经出版（Mitchell at al.）这一所谓的革命性理论认为，预算赤字不会产生任何影响，国家预算支出与税收收入之间的缺口不会导致通货膨胀——如果该缺口可以通过货币发行来填补的话。这一理论的一个明显弱点是，它建立在一个封闭的经济体系中，在这个体系中没有对外贸易，没有资本的流出和流入，也不存在汇率波动的问题。尽管著名经济学家公开批评 MMT（e.g. Krugman 2019a, 2019b; Rogoff 2019），但人们越来越期待，只要左派政治家在美国、澳大利亚、英国、加拿大、一些欧盟国家甚至日本上台执政，这一理论在不远的将来就会被沿用（Moiseev 2019）。

第三类非经济政策的一个生动例子是，在缺乏相关经济理论的情况下，从指令性经济向市场经济过渡（见 1.2，论文 1）（e.g., Papava 2005）。只有对后共产主义国家市场改革所积累的经验进行归纳总结（Åslund，2007 年），才有可能或多或少地建立起从指令经济向市场经济过渡的经济理论框架（如 Hare、Turley 编，2013 年）。

同样重要的是，在缺乏或多或少有理有据的理论的情况下，世界各地出现了加密货币现象（见 1.3，论文 1）（Papava 2018a, 95-97）。诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特-席勒认为，迄今为止，加密货币发行的经济机制尚不明确（Shiller 2018, 2020, 3–12）。

值得注意的是，在后共产主义转型的条件下，第三类非经济政策一直至关重要，但在完成向市场经济的转型后，第一类非经济政策就会凸显出来（Papava 2019）。

众所周知，从自由放任经济到指令性经济，经济政策的性质各不相同，而指令性经济是共产主义导向型经济体的特征。后共产主义时期向市场经济过渡的本质是从第二个极端条件转向第一个极端条件；换句话说，向市场经济过渡的经济政策意味着政府的行为——当政府对经济管理的干预程度逐渐减少并在本质上发生变化时，政府试图创造这样一种制度环境，即相关监管机构为企业的活动提供一个或多或少正规化的框架。

非经济政策的一个主要原因是拉开了经济政策与经济学的距离。我们在多大程度上可以免受非经济政策新先例的影响？

从条件上讲，我们可以将免受非经济政策影响的保障分为两部分：政府经济团队的专业性以及该团队与国际金融机构（IFIs）的密切合作。然而，我们应该意识到，国际金融机构也不能避免犯错（例如，Eichengreen，2008 年；Gregorio 等，1999 年；Papava，2003 年，2009 年）。

在考虑经济学成就的同时，在制定经济政策时，有必要考虑文化因素（例如，Bedianashvili，2021 年；Guiso 等，2006 年；Mokyr，2016 年；Tambovtsev，2018 年；Vidishcheva，Gunare，2019 年），这是一个有待研究的独立问题。

关于作者

弗拉基米尔·帕帕瓦是一位国际知名的经济学家，拥有丰富的学术研究与政治实践经历。他是Core Academy-国际科学与人文学院Fellow（社会科学部）与科睿研究院学术委员，同时也是第比利斯国立大学的经济学教授。

帕帕瓦教授还担任格鲁吉亚国家科学院院士兼总秘书长。

帕帕瓦教授的研究领域广泛，涵盖应用经济学、后共产主义经济体、宏观经济学、经济增长、经济发展以及地理经济学。他创立了“死亡经济学”的概念，作为后共产主义经济转型的理论基础，并提出了“逆经济学”理论，用以解释技术落后的经济现象。此外，他还建立了拉弗-凯恩斯综合模型，并制定了消除经济增长指标中的追赶效应的方法。

在政治生涯方面，帕帕瓦教授曾担任格鲁吉亚经济部长，积累了丰富的政策制定与实施经验。他还曾担任第比利斯国立大学校长，推动了学术研究和教育改革。他的研究不仅关注理论创新，还致力于解决实际经济问题，如全球化转型、大规模经济制裁的经济外部性，以及中高加索-亚洲地缘经济问题。

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